Um estudo sobre a previsão do consumo de energia elétrica considerando as medidas de eficiência energética: aplicado à Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro

Abstract

Electricity consumption forecasting is very important for the energy planning of a country, com- pany or region. The interest in electricity consumption projections is related, in general, to the

financial impact that energy distribution can generate, which can cause immense losses. In this work, we propose a methodology using the bottom-up approach through time series models and cluster analysis to obtain the prediction of electricity consumption. Energy efficiency measures were inserted into the methodology to assess electricity savings. In particular, this methodology was applied to electricity consumption data from the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro

(UFRRJ). The results show that the methodology presented an average absolute percentage er- ror of approximately 1%. In addition, this methodology has shown great potential for evaluating

the implementation of energy efficiency measures.