Impactos do ajuste fiscal sobre a economia do Estado do Rio de Janeiro a partir do Regime de Recuperação Fiscal

Abstract

In recent years, the state of Rio de Janeiro (SRJ) has experienced a serious fiscal crisis that forced it to join the Fiscal Recovery Regime (FRR), created by the Federal Government in order to help states in a serious situation of fiscal imbalance. In 2017, SRJ joined the FRR, through which, a series of implementations of budget-oriented measures were defined, in particular, adjustments through the reduction of government expenditures. The research assumes that a fiscal recovery policy that gives priority to government investments has a greater capacity to generate promising results in the state's fiscal results than a policy that aims only at the indiscriminate reduction of government expenditures. Using the Computational General Equilibrium (CGE) methodology, the interregional matrix of the population arrangement of the State of Rio de Janeiro developed by the Regional and Urban Economics Lab at the University of Sao Paulo – NEREUS, and the structural lineage developed from the B-MARIA CGE model, an interregional model was developed for the State of Rio de Janeiro and the rest of Brazil, the B-MARIA-RJ (Brazilian Multisectoral and Regional/Interregional Analysis for Rio de Janeiro), which was used for the evaluation of the impacts generated by the fiscal adjustment on the economy of the State of Rio de Janeiro, through the Fiscal Recovery Regime. The results show that the impacts of the Tax Recovery Regime do not affect only the Rio de Janeiro economy, but also the entire Brazilian economy. For every R$ 1.00 that is not invested in Rio de Janeiro, the Brazilian economy does not collect, only in indirect taxes, R$ 0.81. This highlights the importance of the state's economy on the national scene and the spillovers of the regime's negative impacts not only on the state's economy but on the entire Brazilian economy.