A chuva como evento deflagrador de um perigo à população de Angra dos Reis - RJ: caracterização temporal e espacial da precipitação no período de 2001 a 2016

Abstract

Rainfall characteristics and variations cause impacts, especially in areas with environmental fragility. This research aims to define from which total rainfall the rain will constitute as threat or effectively endanger the population of the municipality of Angra dos Reis. The aim is to answer if the disasters that occurred in the last decade are the result of the greater frequency and intensity of extreme events and / or risk situations created from the social vulnerability of the population and their forms of occupation. This will help to reduce the occurrence of disasters in the region, enabling the minimization of material damage and loss of life. Initially, synoptic charts were analyzed to observe the atmospheric performance on the days of severe events with great media prominence, which actually showed the highest 24-hour precipitation records; modeling of daily rainfall data obtained from conventional weather stations and TRMM points distributed along the Fluminense Costa Verde region through the R Statistical Software; and the mapping of rainfall distribution and intensity using ArcGis® 10.1 software. The spatial distribution of precipitation is strongly influenced by topography and distance from the coast, causing the maximum precipitation to occur in the windward of Serra do Mar. Regarding the three catastrophic events in the years 2002, 2010 and 2013, we observed that the total rainfall recorded was higher than the historical average in December and January; were larger in the municipality of Angra dos Reis; were associated with the passage of frontal systems; were larger with each event; Only the events of 2010 and 2013 were consolidated as an extreme event from the 95th percentile calculation. The consequences caused by the extreme events became more severe due to the poor / regular population's living conditions in these locations. Thus, it is clear that the problems faced in Angra dos Reis are a conjunction of natural and social processes caused by the proximity of the Serra do Mar slope with the Atlantic Ocean, making eventual episodes catastrophic for a portion of the population, usually those that, because they do not have the financial conditions, eventually occupy the slopes, the ones most affected by the most intense natural phenomena.