Análise de fontes de incerteza na modelagem espacial do solo

Abstract

Modern soil spatial modelling is based on statistical models to explore the empirical relation-ship among environmental conditions and soil properties. These models are a simplification of reality, and their outcome (soil map) will always be in error. What a soil map conveys is what we expect the soil to be, acknowledging that we are uncertain about it. The objective of this thesis is to evaluate important sources of uncertainty in spatial soil modelling, with emphasis on soil and covariate data. Case studies were developed using data from a catchment located in Southern Brazil. The soil spatial distribution in the study area is highly variable, being deter-mined by the geology and geomorphology (coarse spatial scales), and by agricultural practices (fine spatial scales). Four topsoil properties were explored: clay content, organic carbon con-tent, effective cation exchange capacity and bulk density. Five covariates, each with two levels of spatial detail, were used: area-class soil maps, digital elevation models, geologic maps, land use maps, and satellite images. These soil and covariate data constitute the Santa Maria dataset. Two packages for R were created in support to the case studies, the first (pedometrics) con-taining various functions for spatial exploratory data analysis and model calibration, the second (spsann) designed for the optimization of spatial samples using simulated annealing. The case studies illustrated that existing covariates are suitable for calibrating soil spatial models, and that using more detailed covariates results in only a modest increase in the prediction ac-curacy that may not outweigh the extra costs. More efficient means of increasing prediction accuracy should be explored, such as obtaining more soil observations. For this end, one should use objective means for selecting observation locations to minimize the effects of psycholog-ical responses of soil modellers to conceptual and operational factors on the sampling design. This because conceptual and operational difficulties encountered in the field determine how the motivation of soil modellers shifts between learning/verifying soil-landscape relationships and maximizing the number of observations and geographic coverage. For the sole purpose of spa-tial trend estimation, it should suffice to optimize spatial samples aiming only at reproducing the marginal distribution of the covariates. For the joint purpose of optimizing sample configu-rations for spatial trend and variogram estimation, and spatial interpolation, one can formulate a sound multi-objective optimization problem using robust versions of existing sampling algo-rithms. Overall, we have learned that a single, universal recipe for reducing our uncertainty in soil spatial modelling cannot be formulated. Deciding upon efficient ways of reducing our uncertainty requires, first, that we explore the full potential of existing soil and covariate data using sound spatial modelling techniques.