Dinâmica de desmatamento em projetos de assentamento na região noroeste de Mato Grosso: uma contribuição para estratégias de baixo carbono

Abstract

Anthropogenic climatic change appears as one of the main challenges of this century. When considering the share of the “Agriculture, Forests and Other Land Use – AFOLU” sector on global carbon emissions, estimated as 24% of the total, the involvement of this sector in actions to mitigate climatic change is crucial. Therefore, since 22% of Brazil’s carbon emissions are associated with deforestation and forest degradation, and smallholders' participation in Amazon rainforest deforestation has increased over the last decade; this research aims to characterize agrarian reform rural settlements located in the northwest region of the Amazonian State of Mato Grosso, seeking to promote low carbon strategies by the smallholders of this region. For this purpose, the deforestation rate was analyzed during the period 2006-2011.Thus, a reference level was established (1996-2005), to analyze the deforestation rates and set a baseline; as well as three verification periods to identify avoided deforestation in relation to the baseline (1st 2006-2010; 2nd 2011-2015; 3rd 2016-2020). A deforestation projection was also undertaken to estimate avoided deforestation between 2011 and 2020 ("business-as-usual" scenario). Lastly, the deforestation dynamics analysis was concentrated in four settlements, which represent different characteristics in relation to forest remnants. A set of social and environmental criteria was considered to identify the determinants of registered deforestation dynamics. Thus, it was found that the increase in deforestation rates in the detailed settlements was determined by the following factors: i) creation date of the settlement, ii) proximity of roads, iii) geographical location in the northwest region of Mato Grosso, iv) extensive livestock and v) increase in cattle and soybean prices. On the other hand, the implementation of command and control policies by the federal government contributed to control and reduce deforestation rates in the analyzed settlements. In this context, three of the four analyzed settlements would present avoided deforestation from the second verification period (totaling 30.538 tCO2eq); and in the third verification period the four settlements would present avoided deforestation (totaling 1.179.909 tCO2eq). When considering that deforestation rates are not yet under control in the analyzed settlements, as seen in 2011, this research proposed a set of strategies to make the transition from historical economic model to a more sustainable basis in the Amazon settlements. Among the strategies are: i) land tenure regularization, ii) environmental compliance, iii) promote land use best practices (livestock) and also iv) the production chain of Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFPs). The proposed initiatives can be implemented through state public resources (e.g., The Sustainable Municipality Program) and federal (e.g., The Green Agrarian Reform Settlements Program). The strategies should be built from rural settlers demand and experience, as well as from the potential identified in each of the settlements. The effective participation of the rural settlers is critical to the success of the initiatives proposed